UEFA Nations League Preview: Italy vs France – Team News, Line-ups & Prediction

Sunday is the day of reckoning in the UEFA Nations League top flight as Italy and France go head-to-head in Group A2’s top-table six-pointer at Stadio San Siro. With both teams securing a berth in the quarter-finals with a game to spare, the stakes are significantly lower than when they met in the iconic 2006 FIFA World Cup final.

Though through to the playoffs amid a near-flawless Group A2 campaign, Italy can’t afford to rest easy ahead of the kick-off. A scintillating 3-1 come-from-behind triumph in Paris on matchday one means they enter the group finale as a table-topping team, boasting a three-point lead on runners-up France.

Avoiding a multi-goal margin defeat would ensure they progress into the knockout stages as group winners, a feat they’ve achieved in the last two Nations League cycles. Enthusiasm is at an all-time high after Sandro Tonali’s early goal propelled Italy to a 1-0 victory against Belgium in Brussels a few nights ago.

In contrast to Italy’s standout performance at the King Baudouin Stadium, France failed to meet expectations in a tepid 0-0 home draw against the already-relegated Israel. With the continued absence of Kylian Mbappe, under-pressure manager Didier Deschamps seemingly lacks the cutting edge in the final third.

Famous French publication L’Equipe described Thursday’s stalemate at the Stade de France as ‘boring,’ fueling criticism of Deschamps’ tactical approach and raising concerns over Les Bleus’ attacking potency. Therefore, the visitors will be out to atone for their sub-par showing against Israel and wrestle back control of Group A1.

Match Preview

Italy

Italy will approach this top-of-the-table clash with optimism despite failing to beat France across their last five meetings on home soil (D2, L3). Luciano Spalletti’s men have shown they have what it takes to triumph in high-octane showdowns during the ongoing Nations League cycle.

Victories on Belgian and French soil perhaps best illustrate the team’s newfound winning mentality following an epic Euro 2024 fiasco. Adding to Italy’s confidence, they’ve been virtually unplayable at home in this competition, avoiding defeat in all ten such fixtures (W4, D6).

After extending a phenomenal 52-year unbeaten streak in competitive matches against Belgium, Italy should be optimistic about halting their barren run against France. Furthermore, they have bagged at least two goals in both Group A2 outings (W1, D1).

On the evidence of their free-scoring home form in the current Nations League campaign, it’s hard to put it past Italy to heighten the pressure on Deschamps.

France

As aforementioned, France slumped to a gut-wrenching draw against Israel in their final warm-up for this mouth-watering encounter. That result knocked them down from an imperious three-game winning streak yet marked only their second clean sheet in five post-Euro 2024 games.

However, the French must score at least three goals in Milan to leapfrog Italy into the table’s summit. The 2020/21 Nations League winners have failed to achieve that in competitive action since a 3-1 home victory in the Euro 2008 qualifying campaign in September 2006.

Les Bleus can take heart from their formidable away record in Group A2. Deschamps’ men have won both matches on the road ‘to one,’ including a dramatic 2-1 triumph at Belgium last time out. But it’s worth noting that just one of France’s historical Nations League away wins came by a margin big enough to ensure they would dethrone Italy.

Without a clean sheet across their last five Nations League travels, it’s more likely they’ll finish where they are now.

Team News

After wasting a couple of clear-cut chances in Brussels, Mateo Retegui could make way for Fiorentina’s Moise Kean. Nicolo Barella, who excelled in his new role, should keep Roma captain Lorenzo Pellegrini out of the starting XI, with Italy likely to stick with most of the team that toppled Belgium.

On the other hand, France will take this trip without Wesley Fofana, Ousmane Dembele, Loic Bade, Aurelien Tchouameni, and Mbappe. However, Milan duo Mike Maignan and Theo Hernandez should start in a familiar setting. The same goes for Inter star Marcus Thuram, who should lead the line at San Siro.

Italy vs France Potential Starting Line-ups

Italy (3-5-1-1): Gianluigi Donnarumma; Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Alessandro Buongiorno, Alessandro Bastoni; Andrea Cambiaso, Davide Frattesi, Manuel Locatelli, Sandro Tonali, Federico Dimarco; Nicolo Barella; Moise Kean.

France (4-2-3-1): Mike Maignan; Jules Kounde, Ibrahima Konate, William Saliba, Theo Hernandez; N’Golo Kante, Adrien Rabiot; Michael Olise, Warren Zaire-Emery, Bradley Barcola; Marcus Thuram.

Italy vs France Prediction

Though the reverse fixture offered unparalleled thrill and plenty of action, we expect a more conservative approach from Spalletti. Italy should protect their unbeaten home record in the Nations League, but not by winning.

Prediction: Draw

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