We're more than two weeks away from the final College Football Playoff rankings reveal on Dec. 7, and the Michigan Wolverines are still in the conversation.
At 8-2, the Wolverines are ranked at No. 18 in the most recent College Football Playoff ranking, where the top 12 teams at the end of the season will earn a trip to the playoff. That means Michigan still has some work to do to climb into contention, but its road to the playoff is pretty clear.
Should Michigan win its final two games, including an upset over top-ranked Ohio State on Nov. 29, it will have an excellent chance of securing an at-large bid, even if it isn't playing for a conference championship.
But if Michigan loses one of its last two games, it will almost assuredly be eliminated from playoff contention.
Here's what you need to know about Michigan's playoff outlook.
How Michigan can make the CFP
A loss to either Maryland or Ohio State in the last two games will essentially eliminate the Wolverines from CFP contention, mostly because it would max out their win total at nine.
Michigan's most likely path to the CFP hinges on its ability to reach a 10th win. With wins over Maryland and Ohio State in their final two games, the Wolverines will finish the regular season at 10-2, which gives them a good shot to make the CFP for two reasons.
- Ten-win Big Ten and SEC teams have been considered all season as strong candidates for at-large bids.
- Michigan will likely have the strongest signature win of any team in the country should it beat No. 1 Ohio State.
That gives the Wolverines a strong resume to make the playoff, but not a bulletproof one, as they might need some help from other Big Ten teams to help shorten the field and make the CFP selection committee's decision easier.
And that might mean rooting for some teams Michigan fans are not used to supporting.
Who Michigan fans should root for
Michigan fans should embrace their inner green on Saturday, but not the green they're used to seeing from their in-state rivals.
Potentially the most consequential Big Ten game of the entire regular season takes place this Saturday, Nov. 22, with Oregon (9-1, 6-1 Big Ten) taking on USC (8-2, 6-1 Big Ten). A USC win in one way boosts Michigan's resume, as it would mean one of the Wolverines' two losses was to an opponent on the verge of playoff contention.
But make no mistake: Michigan fans should absolutely be rooting for Oregon to win.
An Oregon win would give USC three losses and essentially eliminate the Trojans from playoff contention. That gives Michigan a lot of breathing room, as the selection committee would likely be more open to letting in four Big Ten teams with 10-plus wins (in this scenario, Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon and Michigan) than five.
But if USC beats Oregon, this could become a complicated mess.
If five Big Ten teams finish with 10-plus wins, which could happen if USC beats Oregon and Michigan beats Ohio State, the selection committee may have to wrestle with Oregon, Michigan and USC fighting for two at-large selections.
USC would likely have the edge over both teams with head-to-head wins over both, though it would also have the worst loss among the three with a loss to currently unranked Illinois. Michigan would have the best win among the three with a victory over Ohio State, but it would also have that loss to USC on the resume.
Michigan has also looked far less impressive in its wins this season than Oregon, though that's a subjective take that the committee would likely consider less important than head-to-head matchups.
This rat's nest can be avoided if the committee just decides to allow five Big Ten teams in, even though it allowed only four in the 2024 playoff, the first year it expanded to 12 teams. It's more likely it will stick to either three or four teams, however, which will line up nicely should Oregon beat USC (or Michigan lose to Ohio State).
Teams on the bubble
Let's take a look at 12 teams with two or more losses looking to make it to the final 12.
- No. 8 Oklahoma (8-2): An SEC title-game appearance for the Sooners looks unlikely, but wins against Missouri and LSU in their final two games should lock them in to an at-large berth.
- No. 9 Notre Dame (8-2): The whole Notre Dave vs Miami playoff conversation is a fiasco, but Notre Dame, with upcoming games against Syracuse and Stanford, won't have any high-profile wins left on its schedule to boost its odds.
- No. 10 Alabama (8-2): Oklahoma will get the head-to-head nod over Alabama should it come to that, but the Crimson Tide's earlier win over Georgia might keep it in playoff contention.
- No. 11 BYU (9-1): BYU has one win over a ranked opponent, a 24-21 win over Utah, and should roll through its last two games against Cincinnati and UCF. Will that be enough?
- No. 12 Utah (8-2): Utah likely isn't getting a shot at a Big 12 title, but losing to two playoff contenders makes it a fringe candidate.
- No. 13 Miami (8-2): Miami's losses to Louisville and SMU don't look good in comparison to other bubble teams. But it beat Notre Dame and still has an outside shot at a conference title should it win out, especially with a critical finale against Pitt.
- No. 14 Vanderbilt (8-2): Vanderbilt's case can be helped with a season-ending win over Tennessee, but it might end up as the highest-ranked SEC team out of the playoff.
- No. 15 USC (8-2): Wins over Oregon and UCLA should cement the team's playoff bid — as long as Michigan doesn't create chaos with a fifth-straight win over Ohio State.
- No. 16 Georgia Tech (9-1): The committee likely doesn't think the Yellow Jackets are a worthy team (and they're probably right). But a season-ending win over Georgia and an ACC title will flip that narrative.
- No. 17 Texas (7-3): Three-loss Texas has prominent wins over Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, and might get another if it knocks off Texas A&M in its regular-season finale.
- No. 18 Michigan (8-2): The mission is simple: Beat Ohio State (and Maryland, too).
- No. 19 Virginia (9-2): With essentially no big-name wins, nothing less than an ACC title is going to get the Cavaliers in the playoff.
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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan football CFP chances, path and more