What Does a $640,000 Gem-Set Rolex Tell Us About Watches Right Now?

This is an edition of the newsletter Box + Papers, Cam Wolf’s weekly deep dive into the world of watches. Sign up here.

As far as table-setting events go in the watch industry, few hold more weight and importance than the Geneva auction season. If Watches and Wonders sets the tone for modern pieces, the big sales at houses like Christie’s, Phillips, Sotheby’s, and Antiquorum help crystallize what is happening in the vintage world. As Sacha Davidoff, one half of the beloved Geneva-based vintage watch shop Roy & Sacha Davidoff, once told me that, compared to Watches and Wonders, “The Geneva auctions are much, much, much, much, much, much, much bigger because there's vintage being sold. We probably do 10 to 20, maybe even 30 times more business.” Earlier this week, the watch world convened in Geneva for this fall’s big auctions.

I was keeping an even more watchful eye than usual on these events. because, falling sales have everyone involved in the business sounding alarm bells. So I was interested to see what’s selling, why, and how pieces beyond the big-dollar headliners were faring. There was even some optimism: “It was an encouraging weekend for everyone involved,” Adam Golden, of Menta Watches, told me.

But first a word on those headliners. No two watches were bigger than a unique Breguet and F.P. Journe. The FPJ was the second Journe ever made, and the first he put to market, that went for more than $8 million. The Breguet perpetual calendar that sold for over $2 million is especially cool because of its importance to watch history: it’s probably the first-ever watch with a perpetual calendar and retrograde date display (which arcs across the dial before springing back to its starting point rather than making a full rotation). Coco Chanel’s lover Paul Iribe originally owned this Breguet in the ‘30s!

Both the Journe and Breguet came up plenty as I touched base with a half-dozen dealers this week about this week’s auctions. But rather than get these experts to gush about their diamond of the season, I asked which piece was the most important or revealing result about the current shape of the watch world. Here are their answers.

A watch in Wind's hand is worth two in the bush

Eric Wind, founder of Wind Vintage
Breguet no. 3218—1,920,500 Swiss francs ($2,164,566)

“For me, this Breguet was the lot of the auctions. It was a combination of great provenance, great unrestored original condition (probably even original strap), and an unusual shape. Seeing it go for well over $2 million was a great pleasure and an indication of where the market is headed. The market is looking for honest condition (unrestored), interesting shapes, unimpeachable provenance, and something literally unique. The granddaughter of the original owner even came to the preview and was emotional as she used to just wear it daily to high school!”

Adam Golden, founder of Menta Watches
Optimism! (Expensive)

Obviously, we can’t look at the auction season without looking at the major headlines: early F.P. Journe selling $8 million-plus (and coincidentally, a colleague selling 8 FPJs in one week immediately after), the insane retrograde Breguet calendar watch, and plethora of important Pateks (2499, etc). But I think more telling is the seemingly high sell-through rate of all the houses, with strong results across the board. Anything that was in great condition or rare flew past estimates, regardless of the house. There is a real enthusiasm around collecting right now. I hope we don’t have another huge surge in pricing, I prefer a normal stable market. That being said, it was an encouraging weekend for everyone involved.”

Zoë Abelson, founder of Graal Watches
Cartier Crash “London” and Rolex Day-Date ref. 18188—609,600 Swiss francs ($685,911) and 571,500 Swiss francs ($643,041), respectively

“People are really focusing on unusual and funky watches today. This is different than the last few years, when everyone wanted to collect the same watches—mainly sport models—we have seen a shift in 2024 towards dress watches, and even gem-set. I love the juxtaposition of these two watches [a Cartier “London” Crash and gem-set Rolex Day-Date] being auctioned one after the other. You have a simple, classic (yet unusual) design with the Crash next to a fully gem-set Day-Date, both at similar price points.

The results which reflect today's market is that people are focusing on bold watch designs and special versions of classic models. Time to get back to the way people used to collect before social media. For themselves… not for the likes!”

Mike Nouveau, the King of WatchTok
Roger Smith, Series 2, Edition 3—252,000 Swiss francs ($284,066)

“This watch missed its estimate by 25%. Smith had raised his retail price to match the secondary market price and now this watch hammered well under his new “retail,” and now his market is probably fucked. I think truly rare exceptional pieces will continue to thrive. People aren’t collecting via checklist anymore. Truly unique stuff will continue to rise, and watches you can find 20 of during any auction season will lag behind.”

Dylan Lewis, founder of Goldfinger's Vintage
Gerald Genta “Success” Minute Repeater Perpetual Calendar—88,200 Swiss francs ($99,419)

“I think the right watches fetched the right results. Examples that are so insanely rare with just as much provenance, in museum-grade condition, are truly worth all the attention.

The Breguet 3218 was my highlight, along with so many other enthusiasts. 10 times its estimate plus buyer’s premium. Another was the early F.P. Journe. The second one ever made by the man himself, which sold for over 8 million.

Moreso, I love seeing the results of pieces that didn’t break their estimates. One of my favorites, which also shows the potential of the growth of this kind of watch, was the Genta platinum skeleton perpetual, which sold for 88K Swiss francs, well below its high estimate of 120K. That shows me folks aren’t ready for these kinds of watches but they excite me the most. Genta and his “Success” line was and still is so ahead of its time, examples like these are so undervalued and are so distinctive they are relative bargains compared to much of what is out there.”

Alessandro Fanciulli (AKA Mr.A), founder, Avocado Vintage Watches
Vacheron Constantin Singing Bird Box—107,100 Swiss francs ($120,548)

One of the most exceptional creations I have seen in a long time: full enamel with a magical bird and sounds. It was sold for the price of an average [Patek Philippe Nautilus] 5711. This to me was one of the best buys of the season.

See all of our newsletters, including Box + Papers, here.