The Surprise Selzer Poll from Iowa
The DailyYou’re reading The New Yorker’s daily newsletter, a guide to our top stories, featuring exclusive insights from our writers and editors. Sign up to receive it in your in-box.In today’s newsletter, a stunning new poll from Iowa, released over the weekend. And then, Charles Bethea reports on the people making plans for surviving a civil war. Plus:Watching the election from across the pondCampaigning for the Kamala Harris voteThe life of Quincy JonesPhotograph by Scott Olson / GettyClare MaloneStaff writerOn Saturday evening, the politically on-edge of America, who, in the final days of the election, are nourished by any new scraps of data about the potential makeup of the electorate, were fed an unexpected morsel. The pollster Ann Selzer’s final survey of the state of Iowa showed Kamala Harris beating Donald Trump, forty-seven per cent to forty-four per cent. It was a stunning result; in 2020, Trump won the state by more than eight points, with fifty-three per cent of the vote.Selzer is something of an institution in Beltway circles, a pollster known for her long record of accuracy and her willingness to publish outlier polls that go against the prevailing narrative. Pollsters tend to “herd” when they’re nervous that their results might be wrong, fiddling with variables to come up with something that looks more like what everyone else is predicting. Selzer’s latest poll did anything but that. Based on her years of work, the data journalist Nate Silver has given Selzer & Company an A+ rating.And that’s why the results of her poll made the rounds over the weekend. If Trump could be losing in a white, Midwestern state like Iowa, could that indicate some fundamental weakness in his support? Selzer’s poll found that Independent voters were breaking toward Harris, largely based on the support of women over the age of sixty-five, who favored her by a two-to-one margin. “Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors that are explaining these numbers,” Selzer told the Des Moines Register. If Selzer’s poll is correct in capturing some late shift in the campaign, it means that Harris would be “heavily favored,” as Silver put it in a Substack post, to win the Blue Wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. And that would mean a Harris Presidency, not a Trump second act.Editor’s PickWhen Drew Miller established Fortitude Ranch, a network of survivalist compounds, foreign terrorist attacks were at the top of people’s minds. “Now, for many, it’s civil war,” he said.Photographs by Brian Finke for The New YorkerThe Americans Prepping for a Second Civil WarMany now believe that the U.S. could descend into political violence. Some are joining survivalist communities, canning food—and buying guns.What’s in your bugout bag? That is a popular question among a cohort of Americans who are convinced of a coming cataclysm between violent factions in the country—and who are readying themselves for it. Bugout bags are pre-packed with water filters, laminated maps, antibiotics, and other necessities that might be needed when the shit hits the fan (“SHTF” in prepper lingo). One especially common item to have on hand, as Charles Bethea reports, in this week’s issue, is guns. Bethea visits a Colorado outpost operated by Fortitude Ranch, a network of survivalist retreats that will give its thousand or so paying members a place to flee—and hole up, with food, shelter, and plentiful munitions—if intractable political violence, or any other civilizational catastrophe, unfolds. But what about the rest of us, who are unable or unwilling to pay for a “worst-case homestead”? One person Bethea speaks with, who has a day job for the Department of Defense, offers advice that is almost reassuring: if you’re worried about a crack-up, get to know your neighbors. “The people around you are often your best protection,” he suggests. “Say hello.” Read or listen to the story »More Top StoriesWill Kamala Harris Win the Kamala Harris Vote?Watching an American Election from Across the PondWhat Is Cornel West Thinking?Daily Cartoon“I don’t want to know. My stress level is high enough as it is.”Cartoon by Julia SuitsCopy link to cartoonCopy link to cartoonLink copiedShopShopMore Fun & GamesPlay today’s challenging puzzle. A clue: Thrower of the Apple of Discord. Four letters.P.S. Experiencing an election freakout? For Shouts & Murmurs, Wendi Aarons and Johanna Gohmann write that it’s not too late to get last-minute foreign citizenship. Just fill out this application.
In today’s newsletter, a stunning new poll from Iowa, released over the weekend. And then, Charles Bethea reports on the people making plans for surviving a civil war. Plus:
- Watching the election from across the pond
- Campaigning for the Kamala Harris vote
- The life of Quincy Jones
Clare Malone
Staff writer
On Saturday evening, the politically on-edge of America, who, in the final days of the election, are nourished by any new scraps of data about the potential makeup of the electorate, were fed an unexpected morsel. The pollster Ann Selzer’s final survey of the state of Iowa showed Kamala Harris beating Donald Trump, forty-seven per cent to forty-four per cent. It was a stunning result; in 2020, Trump won the state by more than eight points, with fifty-three per cent of the vote.
Selzer is something of an institution in Beltway circles, a pollster known for her long record of accuracy and her willingness to publish outlier polls that go against the prevailing narrative. Pollsters tend to “herd” when they’re nervous that their results might be wrong, fiddling with variables to come up with something that looks more like what everyone else is predicting. Selzer’s latest poll did anything but that. Based on her years of work, the data journalist Nate Silver has given Selzer & Company an A+ rating.
And that’s why the results of her poll made the rounds over the weekend. If Trump could be losing in a white, Midwestern state like Iowa, could that indicate some fundamental weakness in his support? Selzer’s poll found that Independent voters were breaking toward Harris, largely based on the support of women over the age of sixty-five, who favored her by a two-to-one margin. “Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors that are explaining these numbers,” Selzer told the Des Moines Register. If Selzer’s poll is correct in capturing some late shift in the campaign, it means that Harris would be “heavily favored,” as Silver put it in a Substack post, to win the Blue Wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. And that would mean a Harris Presidency, not a Trump second act.
Editor’s Pick
The Americans Prepping for a Second Civil War
Many now believe that the U.S. could descend into political violence. Some are joining survivalist communities, canning food—and buying guns.
What’s in your bugout bag? That is a popular question among a cohort of Americans who are convinced of a coming cataclysm between violent factions in the country—and who are readying themselves for it. Bugout bags are pre-packed with water filters, laminated maps, antibiotics, and other necessities that might be needed when the shit hits the fan (“SHTF” in prepper lingo). One especially common item to have on hand, as Charles Bethea reports, in this week’s issue, is guns. Bethea visits a Colorado outpost operated by Fortitude Ranch, a network of survivalist retreats that will give its thousand or so paying members a place to flee—and hole up, with food, shelter, and plentiful munitions—if intractable political violence, or any other civilizational catastrophe, unfolds. But what about the rest of us, who are unable or unwilling to pay for a “worst-case homestead”? One person Bethea speaks with, who has a day job for the Department of Defense, offers advice that is almost reassuring: if you’re worried about a crack-up, get to know your neighbors. “The people around you are often your best protection,” he suggests. “Say hello.” Read or listen to the story »
- Will Kamala Harris Win the Kamala Harris Vote?
- Watching an American Election from Across the Pond
- What Is Cornel West Thinking?
Daily Cartoon
P.S. Experiencing an election freakout? For Shouts & Murmurs, Wendi Aarons and Johanna Gohmann write that it’s not too late to get last-minute foreign citizenship. Just fill out this application.
