Shaq’s NBA viewership theory is wrong and here’s the reason fans are deserting as league closes in on $77bn broadcast deal
Shaq's NBA viewership theory as ratings slump ahead of $77 billion broadcast deal
This summer the NBA signed a $77 billion TV rights contract and they may have been lucky to do so.
With NBA ratings dipping, NBA legends and experts have speculated as to the reasons why.
Recent prime-time slots that normally see large TV audiences have seen significant viewership declines compared to the last few seasons.
The NBA was in competition with the MLB World Series for the first few rounds of the new season and TV audiences took a hit while the series between Dodgers and Yankees was the most-watched Fall Classic since 2017.
ESPN’s opening week doubleheader in October – Bucks at Sixers then Suns at Clippers – averaged just 1.6 million viewers, a 42% decrease from the same period in 2023 according to Sports Media Watch
In addition, ESPN’s first Thursday doubleheader saw a 29% decrease despite being an anticipated matchup of Luka Doncic v Victor Wembanyama as the Spurs played the Mavericks.
NBA legend and now TNT broadcaster Shaquille O’Neal chimed in on this issue and gave his theory on declining TV viewership on an episode of The Big Podcast.
“I have a theory that [the ratings] are down because we’re looking at the same thing,” O’Neal said.
“Everybody’s running the same plays… Steph Curry and those guys messed things up, I don’t mind Golden State back in the day shooting threes, but every team is not a three-point shooter”
The four-time NBA champion ended by suggesting that NBA teams should revert to the old playing styles in reply to his podcast host, Adam Lefkoe, mentioning that Anthony Edwards is averaging close to ten threes a game.
“I think viewership will continue to go down unless we switch things back,” Shaq said.
The number of three-pointers per game has significantly increased in recent years with the Golden State Warriors often blamed for the uptick in how many three-pointers teams shoot a game.
In the 2010/11 season, the Orlando Magic led the NBA with the most three-pointers per game, averaging just 25.5, fast forward to this season and the Boston Celtics are averaging 51.4 threes a game with the Charlotte Hornets second with 44.7.
Three-pointers are dominating the game but not everyone shares the view that this is causing the slump in ratings and TV audiences.
Speaking exclusively to talkSPORT, Front Office Sports business reporter Colin Salao explained that it is misleading to suggest shooting threes are causing a decline in viewership. https://twitter.com/bigpodwithshaq/status/1854910977596121303
“At the end of the day, it’s star power not threes,” Salao said.
“It’s star power that’s gonna provide numbers. Look no further than what happened last week. The most-watched game since opening week this year happened last week, and it’s because Steph Curry played his 1st national TV game.
“It had 2,100,000 viewers, and it was up 30% versus last year’s comparable window, you can’t tell me that’s a coincidence. They played the Celtics, and the Celtics are the team that Shaq was critiquing for shooting so many threes.”
Salao went further to explain that as a result of the American star players not competing for championships this is impacting interest in the regular season.
Curry was the last American superstar to win a championship back in 2022 but with him and Kevin Durant both 36 and LeBron James turning 40 later this year, some argue that the younger Americans coming through are yet to capture the nation’s imagination like the trio did when they came through.
“The best players in the league are European and while I personally love to watch Luka or Giannis, folks just don’t have the same emotional affinity in terms of an attachment to Europeans as they love their Americans,” Salao added.
“Michael Jordan carried the league for a decade, he retired and viewership and ratings dipped, we had the Pistons and Spurs in the finals for a few years where ratings were low then LeBron came through and became the face of the league and the numbers go up again.
“We’ll have to see who can take the mantle once this current crop of LeBron, KD and Steph go maybe it’ll be Cooper Flagg but as of right now, there is not a clear frontrunner from an American perspective.”
With the trio of KD, LeBron and Steph all approaching the end of their careers, the NBA will have a lot to do to ensure they can capture the attention of a younger generation.
Perhaps when Flagg comes through and Victor Wembanyama is on a team that wins more than 30 games a year, the NBA will have a rivalry it can promote again and its ratings and viewership will go up.
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