2025 Silver Outlook: Australia Edition

Table of Contents

Silver Price 2024 Year-End Review

Silver Price Forecast: Top Trends That Will Affect Silver in 2025

David Morgan: Silver to US$40 in 2025, Then Blow-off Top in 2026?

ASX Silver Stocks: 5 Biggest Companies

Silver Price 2024 Year-End Review

The silver price put on a strong performance in 2024, hitting highs not seen in over a decade.

Despite some volatility, factors like increasing industrial demand, safe-haven buying from investors and weakening mining supply all came together during the year to support gains in the price.

All told, silver is up nearly 35 percent since the start of 2024, outperforming gold's 32 percent gain.

Silver price in Q4

Silver began Q4 on a strong note, reaching US$31.37 per ounce on October 1 and climbing to US$32.18 on October 4; it then slipped to US$30.49 on October 9. However, the white metal's price didn’t remain low for long. It surged to its year-to-date high of US$34.72 on October 22, also reaching its highest level in 12 years.

The most significant tailwinds for silver came from geopolitical tensions, with what appeared to be a greater likelihood of the Israel-Palestine conflict spilling over into a broader regional war in October. Israel’s attacks on Lebanon, Syria and Iran saw more investors seek the haven of precious metals, benefiting silver.

As November began, the price of silver was again in retreat, trading at US$30.24 by November 15.

Silver faced headwinds following the US presidential election on November 5, losing nearly 5 percent in a single day as some investors fled to interest-bearing assets. However, the metal's losses were somewhat softened after the US Federal Reserve made a 25 basis point cut to its benchmark rate on November 7.

Silver price, Q4 2024.

Chart via Trading Economics.

As the month worse on, silver saw volatility, spiking to US$31.34 on November 22. The rise came as safe-haven investors flocked to the metal following an escalation in the war between Russia and Ukraine. The US, UK and France said they would allow the use of long-range missiles by Ukraine to attack military targets inside Russia.

Previously, Ukraine had only been allowed to use the missiles to strike targets along the border.

The response from Russia was a policy change that would permit the use of nuclear weapons against countries supported by nuclear powers. Following the move, Russia launched a test of an intermediate-range ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear payload on a target within Ukraine.

Silver fell to a quarterly low of US$30.11 on November 27, but since then the precious metal has regained some ground. As of December 11, it was trading at US$31.88.

The next Fed meeting is set to run from December 17 to 18. Most analysts expect the central bank to make one last 25 basis point cut before pausing in 2025.

How did silver perform for the rest of the year?

Silver price in Q1

Silver started the year on a low note as its lackluster performance from 2023 carried over.

However, rate cut expectations added momentum to silver at the end of February and the beginning of March, which pushed the price up from the US$22 range to above US$25.

At the time, Peter Krauth, editor of Silver Stock Investor, told the Investing News Network (INN), “Silver also typically lags gold, then catches up and surpasses it. We’re starting to see that happen in spades right now. Since the end of February, gold is up about 15 percent, while silver has been up about 22 percent.”

Krauth also mentioned declining aboveground silver inventories.

“I think there may be 12 to 24 months left before they run out,” he said.

Silver price in Q2

The big news from the second quarter was silver breaking through the US$30 barrier.

The price continued to be fueled by rate cut speculation, but also saw support from industrial segments as demand from India soared. The country imported more silver during the first four months of 2024 than all of 2023.

India is typically known for its strong precious metals jewelry demand, but Silver Institute President and CEO Michael DiRienzo told INN that it was also benefiting from “firmer electrical and electronics demand, thanks to the continued strength in India’s real estate market and rising investment in local infrastructure construction.”

Industrial segments, particularly photovoltaics production, have been a driver of Indian demand as the country works to build up its domestic solar supply chain through its approved list of models and manufacturers.

Silver price in Q3

Silver didn’t see much upward momentum through most of the third quarter.

Instead, it saw a significant retreat toward US$26. Still, by the end of the quarter, a Fed rate cut had provided a substantial tailwind for silver, sending it above the US$32 mark by the end of September.

The quarter also saw First Majestic Silver (TSX:AG,NYSE:AG) announce on September 5 that it would purchase all of the issued and outstanding shares of Gatos Silver (TSX:GATO,NYSE:GATO) in a US$970 million transaction.

The deal will give First Majestic a 70 percent stake in the Cerro Los Gatos mine in Northern Mexico. The combined entity's anticipated annual production is 30 million to 32 million silver equivalent ounces.

This was followed on October 4 by Coeur Mining's (NYSE:CDE) agreement to acquire SilverCrest Metals (TSX:SIL,NYSE:SILV) for US$1.7 billion. The deal will create one of the world's largest silver producers, with annual output of 21 million ounces of the white metal projected by 2025.

The deal will give Coeur 100 percent ownership of the recently opened Las Chispas mine in Sonora, Mexico, which is projected to sell 9.8 million to 10.2 million silver equivalent ounces this year.

Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!

Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.

Silver Price Forecast: Top Trends That Will Affect Silver in 2025

The silver price reached highs not seen since 2012 this past year, supported by an ongoing deficit and increasing interest from investors as geopolitical concerns prompted safe-haven buying.

The white metal reached its highest point for the year in October, breaking through US$34 per ounce on the back of a shifting post-pandemic landscape and geopolitical tensions. However, Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election just a few weeks later buoyed bond yields and the US dollar while weighing on silver and gold.

What will 2025 hold for silver? As the new year approaches, investors are closely watching how Trump's policies and actions could impact the precious metal, along with supply and demand trends in the space.

Here's what experts see coming for silver in 2025.

How will Trump's presidency impact silver?

As Trump's inauguration approaches, speculation is rife about how he could affect the resource industry.

The president-elect ran on a policy of “drill, baby, drill," and while his focus was largely on oil and gas companies, mining sector participants have taken it as a positive sign for exploration and development.

Trump's promise to reduce permitting timelines for anyone making an investment of US$1 billion or more in the US has excited sector members, and could end up being a boon to silver companies in the country.

However, part of the help Trump has promised to mining companies comes from reneging on environmental commitments, including the Paris Agreement. This could end up weighing on silver.

Current President Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act includes tax credits and deductions for solar projects, and there's some concern that the incoming administration and the new Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) could impose reversals or have the entire act gutted, hurting the solar market.

However, Peter Krauth, author of "The Great Silver Bull" and editor of the Silver Stock Investor, told the Investing News Network (INN) that Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Musk could end up keeping solar safe.

“Tesla bought SolarCity, which became Tesla Energy. They are an important provider of solar panels. Again, Musk’s new role heading DOGE and obvious close connection to Trump just might help mitigate risks to Tesla and its solar panel/power storage business. If that happens, in whatever form it may take, it could shelter solar panel production and sales in the US to a considerable degree,” Krauth explained via email.

He also noted that Trump's presidency isn't without risks and that much uncertainty still remains.

Mind Money CEO Julia Khandoshko also isn't worried about solar demand in the US.

“Rolling back ESG policies and returning to carbon-based technologies could slow the green energy transition in the US. However, Europe and China, the main drivers of the green transition, remain committed to clean energy, which increases silver demand. Thus, global trends will continue to support silver use in renewable energy technologies,” she told INN.

Silver deficit expected to continue

Industrial segments have been critical for silver demand in recent years.

As of November, the Silver Institute was forecasting total industrial demand of 702 million ounces of silver for 2024, an increase of 7 percent over the 655 million ounces recorded in 2023.

The institute attributes much of this increase to energy transition sectors, highlighting photovoltaics in particular.

However, these gains are coming alongside flat mine production, which is expected to grow only 1 percent to 837 million ounces during 2024. Once factored in, secondary supply from recycling pushes total supply of silver to 1.03 billion ounces for the year, a considerable gap from the 1.21 billion ounces of total demand.

Both Krauth and Khandoshko think the gap between silver supply and demand will continue.

Krauth suggested that companies have been dipping into aboveground inventories to narrow the gap, which has helped to keep the price of silver from exploding over the past year. "That supply is quickly drying up, so I expect to see renewed upward price pressure since silver miners are unable to grow output," he told INN.

Khandoshko expressed a similar sentiment, saying demand is likely to keep outpacing supply.

However, she also sees geopolitics and a global macroeconomic situation that could constrain both demand and supply growth in 2025. For example, economic difficulties in Europe and China could slow energy transition demand.

When it comes to supply, Khandoshko told INN that she sees a different scenario.

“The problem is that silver production is mainly concentrated in geopolitically challenging areas, such as Russia and Kazakhstan, where securing funding for supply expansion is quite difficult," she explained.

"These factors limit silver’s growth potential compared to gold, which in turn benefits from its role as a safe-haven asset during times of economic uncertainty."

Silver M&A set to heat up in 2025

As silver supply becomes increasingly stressed, experts are eyeing projects that are ramping up.

Krauth highlighted Aya Gold and Silver’s (TSX:AYA:OTCQX:AYASF) Zgounder mine expansion. Its first pour was at the end of November, and it is expected to ramp up to full annual output of 8 million ounces in 2025.

Endeavour Silver’s (TSX:EDR,NYSE:EXK) Terronera mine is also nearing completion. Once complete, the operation is expected to produce 15.5 million silver equivalent ounces per year.

For its part, Skeena Resources (TSX:SKE,NYSE:SKE) is working to develop its Eskay Creek project. It is set to come online in 2027, and is expected to bring 9.5 million ounces of silver per year to market in its first five years.

Krauth said a rising silver price is likely good news for mergers and acquisitions in 2025.

“Higher prices, since they translate into higher share prices, meaning acquirers can use their more valuable shares as a currency to acquire others … I think 2024 will bring deals between mid-tiers and between juniors," he said.

Krauth added, "The truth is that many mid-tier producers have not been spending on exploration. Something has to give, so I think we’ll see this space heat up."

Investor takeaway

Khandoshko and Krauth have similar silver outlooks for 2025, suggesting a possible pullback.

“Due to supply shortages and increasing demand in the coming months, silver is expected to reach US$35. After this, a slight pullback to US$30 would be possible,” Khandoshko said.

However, after that happens she projects another rise, with silver potentially passing US$50.

Krauth was looking for silver to reach US$35 in 2024, which happened in Q4. Looking forward to 2025, he thinks the white metal will revisit that level in the first quarter, with US$40 or more possible later in the year.

However, he suggested that investors should be cautious of wider economic trends affecting silver.

“There is a serious risk of significant correction in the broader markets and of a recession. A broad market selloff could bleed into silver stocks, even if only temporarily,” Krauth said.

In the case of a recession, a lack of industrial demand could create headwinds for silver. Still, Krauth thinks that could be tempered by government stimulus efforts for green energy and infrastructure.

Overall, 2025 could be a significant year for silver investors. However, geopolitical and economic instability may provide headwinds across the resource sector and could stymie silver's upward momentum.

Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!

Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Editorial Disclosure: Prismo Metals is a client of the Investing News Network. This article is not paid-for content.

The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.

David Morgan: Silver to US$40 in 2025, Then Blow-off Top in 2026?

David Morgan, publisher of the Morgan Report, shared his outlook for silver in 2025 and beyond, saying that the white metal may reach US$40 per ounce next year with the possibility of a blow-off top in 2026 or so.

He also discussed his ongoing concerns about central bank digital currencies, both in the US and globally.

"If you could use one word to define my purpose, the way I see it, it's 'freedom.' I like the silver and the gold, and all the stories behind them and the monetary purposes thereof," Morgan said.

"But when it gets down to it, the way the system's going, the amount of gold and silver you have is going to be pretty much meaningless if you do not fit into the social credit system like the Chinese (have)."

Watch the interview above for more from Morgan on silver, as well as gold and the overall market. You can also click here to view the Investing News Network's New Orleans Investment Conference playlist on YouTube.

Don’t forget to follow us @INN_Resource for real-time updates!

Securities Disclosure: I, Charlotte McLeod, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.

Editorial Disclosure: The Investing News Network does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the information reported in the interviews it conducts. The opinions expressed in these interviews do not reflect the opinions of the Investing News Network and do not constitute investment advice. All readers are encouraged to perform their own due diligence.

ASX Silver Stocks: 5 Biggest Companies in 2024

Silver is often compared to gold due to its importance in jewellery and as a safe-haven investment.

However, silver has many industrial applications too, including in electronics, automobiles and silverware, as well as medicine and photography. Energy transition applications are a growing demand sector for silver too — the metal is valued for its conductive capacity, which makes it particularly useful in the production of photovoltaic panels.

Silver supply has tightened in recent years as industrial demand rises. This was one of several factors that helped the silver price break through the US$30 per ounce mark in May of this year for the first time since 2013.

Silver has seen high volatility since then, falling below US$27 in August before pulling back above US$30 the next month.

In late October, the silver price reached its highest point of 2024, moving above US$34 and AU$52. While the metal has since pulled back slightly, the silver price is still holding above US$30 and AU$46.

In this environment, it's a good time to learn about the largest primary silver companies on the ASX. These ASX silver stocks are sorted by market cap, and data was gathered using TradingView’s stock screener on November 26, 2024.

1. Adriatic Metals (ASX:ADT)

Company Profile

Market cap: AU$1.36 billion
Share price: AU$4.10

Adriatic Metals is a precious and base metals miner in South-Central Europe that is now producing silver from the Rupice mine at its Vareš project, located near Vareš, a historic mining town in Bosnia and Herzegovina. In late February, Adriatic produced its first silver-lead concentrate and zinc concentrate at the Vareš processing plant.

Adriatic’s mining efforts at Vareš are focused on the Rupice deposit, for which it released an ore reserve estimate in December 2023. The estimate indicates an 18 year mine life and probable reserves of 83 million ounces of silver, 640,000 ounces of gold, 723,000 tonnes of zinc, 457,000 tonnes of lead, 64,000 tonnes of copper and 24,000 tonnes of antimony.

In its third quarter update, released on October 28, the company indicated that the ramp-up at Vareš was continuing, with commercial production on track for Q4. Adriatic noted that it had started producing five days per week at the site and would be increasing operations to a 24/7 schedule beginning in November.

Adriatic's silver production increased to 95,535 ounces in Q3, up from 21,591 ounces in Q2.

2. Andean Silver (ASX:ASL)

Company Profile

Market cap: AU$158.34 million
Share price: AU$0.99

Andean Silver is a precious metals exploration and development company focused on advancing the Cerro Bayo silver and gold project in Southern Chile. The company took ownership of Cerro Bayo in early 2024.

The land package consists of 70 exploration concessions covering a total of 285 square kilometres and hosts a past-producing mine that was in operation for more than 15 years. It produced 45 million ounces of silver and 650,000 ounces of gold before being placed on care and maintenance in 2022.

In its most recent resource estimate for the project, released on September 19, the company reported an 80 percent upgrade to 91 million silver equivalent ounces at 342 grams per tonne (g/t) silver equivalent.

The resource includes indicated and inferred quantities of 39 million ounces of silver and 628,000 ounces of gold from 8.2 million tonnes of ore with average grades of 146 g/t silver and 2.4 g/t of gold.

The company said it was engaged in a 12 month exploration strategy and had deployed two drilling rigs to the site. It is focused on growing the Cerro Bayo resource and near-mine drilling targets, as well as making new discoveries.

Its latest exploration update came on October 31, when Andean announced it had extended mineralisation outside the known resource. Highlighted assays include 584 g/t silver equivalent over 4.5 metres at the Cristal target, as well as 864 g/t silver equivalent over 3.2 metres, including 1,871 g/t silver equivalent over 1.4 metres at Pegaso.

3. Silver Mines (ASX:SVL)

Company Profile

Market cap: AU$143.26 million
Share price: AU$0.093

Silver Mines is an advanced-stage silver exploration and development company focused on its Bowdens silver project, which is located in Central New South Wales, 26 kilometres east of Mudgee.

Bowdens is made up of 2,115 square kilometres of titles, covers 80 kilometres of strike and represents the largest-known undeveloped silver resource in Australia. In its latest resource estimate, released in March 2023, the company reported 169 million ounces of silver and 96,000 ounces of gold in the measured and indicated categories, with an additional inferred resource of 20 million ounces of silver and 96,000 ounces of gold.

The project was approved to proceed to the development and production stage in April 2023. However, the company faced a setback following an appeals court decision on August 18 that reversed earlier court proceedings; as a result, development of the project was halted. In an update shared at the time, the company said the appeal was primarily centred on the potential impact of transmission lines to provide electricity for the project.

Silver Mines followed up on the situation in an August 20 press release, saying it was committed to the progression of the project and obtaining all relevant permits and development consents. Additionally, it reported that the optimisation study for Bowdens was on track for completion by the end of the year; Silver Mines said it had the potential to operate with less environmental impact than the original 2018 feasibility study indicated.

The most recent update came on October 15, when Silver Mines reported receiving advice suggesting that its development application was "alive and on foot" and had not received a final determination from the Independent Planning Commission. The company said it will now work through the steps required to reinstate consent from the Independent Planning Commission and address concerns over the proposed transmission lines to the site.

4. Sun Silver (ASX:SS1)

Company Profile

Market cap: AU$100.17 million
Share price: AU$0.665

Sun Silver is an exploration and development company that is working to advance its Maverick Springs silver-gold project in Nevada, US, which it acquired from Element79 Gold (CSE:ELEM,OTC Pink:ELMGF) in May of this year. Sun Silver completed its initial public offering and began trading on the ASX that month.

On August 28, the company announced it had increased the inferred resource for Maverick Springs by 45 percent to 423 million silver equivalent ounces. This includes 253.3 million ounces of silver and 2 million ounces of gold from 195.74 million tonnes of ore with average grades of 40.25 g/t silver and 0.32 g/t gold.

The update was based on a review of historical drill data and re-modelling of the resource. It did not include data from the company's ongoing inaugural drill program, which encountered high-grade silver in the northwest section of Maverick Springs, an area outside of the existing resource where historic drilling identified grades up to 6,216 g/t silver.

On November 13, Sun Silver announced it had expanded its land holdings at Maverick Springs by acquiring 80 additional lode claims, increasing the property size by 34 percent to 26.28 square kilometres.

The new claims are to the north and along strike of the established mineralised zone.

The most recent assays from Maverick Springs' inaugural drill program were released on November 19, and include a highlighted drill hole with 43.9 g/t silver over 50.29 metres, including an intersection of 398 g/t silver over 3.05 metres.

The company plans to update the resource again early next year using the data from the drill program, which repeatedly intersected thick, high-grade mineralisation outside the existing resource.

5. Unico Silver (ASX:USL)

Company Profile

Market cap: AU$96.35 million
Share price: AU$0.20

Unico Metals is focused on assets in Argentina. Its flagship project is Cerro Leon, which consists of two vein fields: the greenfield Conserrat project, in which Unico has an 80 percent stake, and the more advanced Pingüino project.

A May 2023 resource estimate for Cerro Leon outlines indicated and inferred resources of 40.9 million ounces of silver, 344,200 ounces of gold, 332 million pounds of zinc and 129 million pounds of lead.

On July 24, Unico completed a share purchase agreement to acquire a 100 percent interest in the Sierra Blanca silver-gold project from Austral Gold (ASX:AGD,OTCQB:AGLDF) and Capella Metals (TSXV:CMIL,OTCQB:CMILF). The acquisition will allow Unico to expand Cerro Leon and consolidate the Pingüino vein into a single entity.

Soon after that, on August 20, Unico entered into an agreement with Pan American Silver (TSX:PAAS,NYSE:PAAS) to purchase a 100 percent interest in the Joaquin and Cerro Puntundo projects. The projects are located 60 kilometres away from the Cerro Leon project, enhancing the overall scale and economics of the regional portfolio.

Under the terms of the deal, Unico was to provide a US$2 million upfront payment, with an additional payment of US$2 million on the publication of a feasibility study and US$8 million on first production from the site.

Unico announced the completion of the deal on October 20.

On November 6, Unico closed on a funding package, raising AU$22.5 million through the sale of 83.33 million ordinary shares at AU$0.27 per share. The company said it will use the money to conduct a 50,000 metre exploration program at the Cerro Leon and Joaquin projects and update the resource estimate in late 2025.

Don't forget to follow us @INN_Australia for real-time news updates!

Securities Disclosure: I, Dean Belder, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.