Early voting numbers are 'scary' for Harris, Democrats are 'panicking,' former Obama campaign manager warns

Obama 2012 campaign manager Jim Messina said on MSNBC Sunday that the early voting numbers are "scary" for the Harris campaign as data shows Republicans making significant gains with early voting in battleground states compared to 2020. 

"The early vote numbers are a little scary," Messina said on "Inside with Jen Psaki" when asked what the Harris campaign's biggest concerns are in the days before an election.

"Republicans didn't do what they did last time," Messina added. "Last time, Trump said don't early vote so they didn't. Republicans do have an advantage in early vote numbers. When the early votes come in, it's going to look a little bit different than 2020 and that's scary."

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But Messina said, Democrats are pleased with the early turnout of two key voting blocs - women and young voters, demographics the Harris campaign is banking on.

"Women voters make up 55% of the early voters and in the past 10 days, young voters in these battleground states are coming out in what looks to be, for early votes, historic numbers," he said.

Still, Messina added, the early vote totals have caused lots of "my friends to call me panicking" when comparing the data to 2020. 

While early voting has traditionally been favored by Democrats, both parties have pushed voters to cast ballots ahead of time in this election - and the emphasis on early voting has had a seismic effect.

New numbers released in Nevada, a key swing state, show historic early-voting numbers for Republicans, who lead Democrats by about 5% in the early vote which ended in person on Friday. Early voting concluded in the state with 393,811 votes cast for Republicans, 344,539 for Democrats, and 287,762 for other affiliations, according to the secretary of state's website.

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The roughly 49,000 vote advantage that Republicans had over Democrats at the end of the week is a stark contrast from 2020, when Democrats ended early voting with a 43,000-vote advantage.

Some political pundits and politicians outside the Republican Party have also sounded the alarm for Democrats in Nevada in terms of the GOP early-vote surge.

"Republicans are kicking our ass at early voting," Nevada Democratic Congresswoman Dina Titus said during a Harris rally in North Las Vegas. "We cannot let that happen."

In Georgia, Republicans appear confident the state’s record-setting early voting numbers will favor Trump. The former commander in chief lost Georgia by less than 1% in 2020, and Republicans have poured enormous time and resources into winning it back.

During the early voting period between Oct. 15 and Nov. 1, nearly 4 million Georgians cast in-person or absentee ballots, more than half the state’s active voters. Over 700,000 people who voted already in 2024 did not vote at all in 2020, according to Georgia Votes. Meanwhile, the top three counties for voter turnout rates are rural areas won by Trump in 2020.

A source on the Trump campaign told the New York Post Sunday that in four battleground states - Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada and Pennsylvania, "Democrats have more than 1.4 million voters who voted before Election Day in 2020 or 2022 but have not voted yet and many not having even requested a mail ballot," the outlet reported.

The Post cited early voting data from Arizona, reporting that returned mail and early-vote party registration has Republicans currently up by 8 points. Relative to 2020 numbers, Republicans currently lead by 9 points, according to the outlet.

Similarly, in Nevada, the Post shows Republicans up by one point in returned mail and early-vote party registration.  Compared to 2020, Republicans are leading by 9 points, the outlet reported.

"This appears to be the first time Republicans have ever clinched the early vote in North Carolina," the Post wrote.

While Democrats are leading in early votes in Pennsylvania, Republicans are reportedly significantly better positioned than they were in 2020, according to the Post.