COLUMN: More than Luck – The Fine Margins of La Liga’s Title Fight

The Liga title race took another dramatic turn this past weekend as Atletico Madrid secured a last-minute 2-1 victory over Barcelona at the Olympic Stadium of Montjuïc. This crucial win propelled Atletico to the top of the table while ending an 18-year drought of away league victories against Barcelona. It’s been years since LaLiga witnessed a title race this tight among its traditional three powerhouses: Atletico Madrid, Barcelona, and Real Madrid. 

These matches have been the kryptonite of the Simeone era, with Atleti often struggling to show their best version. Ironically, Atletico managed to win this game despite once again being heavily dominated by a Barcelona side that created far more chances. Yet, football has never been about ‘deserving’ to score – it’s about actually scoring. And Atleti are the ones who had the efficiency to score.  

One might argue that this efficiency is unsustainable throughout a season. Yet, Atletico has repeatedly shown an uncanny ability to survive periods of poor performance and strike back decisively in late-game moments. Remarkably, they have scored 13 of their 33 league goals – a staggering 40% – in the final 15 minutes of matches this season. The list of Atleti’s late goal victims is extensive, both in Spain – Celta, Barca, Rayo, Alaves, Sevilla, Real Madrid – and in Europe – PSG, Leipzig.

94' Koke vs Girona
92' Correa vs Athletic
94' Julián vs Valencia
90' Josema vs Leipzig
90' Julián vs Celta
95' Correa vs Real Madrid
99' Sørloth vs Leganés
93' Correa vs PSG
92' Sørloth vs Valladolid
92' De Paul vs Cacereño
96' Julián vs Cacereño
94' Grizi vs Sevilla
96' Sørloth… pic.twitter.com/LZdTpl4Ua6

— Atlético de Madrid (@Atleti) December 24, 2024

Such results may not make sense to someone doing the tactical or statistical analysis of the games, but in my opinion, these moments are the most fun part of football. Many analysts and analytics enthusiasts dismiss these moments as luck or randomness, yet there is intellectual humility in acknowledging that not everything can be fully explained by tactics or numerical models.  

While skill and randomness explain a significant portion of expected goal (xG) under- or overperformance, psychological and dynamic contextual elements also play a role. A player’s confidence, mental state, and focus can significantly affect their finishing ability. For example, a player in good form may take risks they wouldn’t attempt otherwise or remain calmer in high-pressure moments, improving their conversion rate. Conversely, players experiencing slumps may hesitate, overthink, or lose composure in front of the goal, leading to poorer outcomes.  

Certain game scenarios, such as the scoreline, stage of competition, or presence of an audience, can influence how players perform relative to xG. A striker may excel in low-stakes moments but struggle under intense pressure, or vice versa. These context-dependent, dynamic factors are challenging to quantify but undeniably impactful and should not be conflated with randomness. A lot of stats analysis I see online makes the mistake of conflating the dynamic and contextual factors with the random, and such oversimplifications hinder the quality of the analysis.

@FedeeValverde doesn't score normal goals, pass it on.#LaLigaHighlights pic.twitter.com/5l88q6jEzN

— Real Madrid C.F.