If Republicans want to win the 2026 midterms, they need to take a close look at America’s small businesses.
The White House certainly has. This week, the White House launched National Small Business Week to celebrate their contribution to the economy and to jobs.
But small business owners will also hold the key to who wins, and who loses, this November.
There are more than 36.8 million small businesses in the U.S., if we count companies with 500 employees or fewer.
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Here are some basic stats regarding their importance to the U.S. economy:
But here are some hard truths about what it takes to be a small business owner:
According to the Tax Foundation, federal, state and local taxes eat up 20-30% of the earned income of small business owners.
In addition, twenty-five percent spend more than $10,000 a year on tax and regulatory compliance. A small business owner spends, on average, 200 to 300 hours per year on compliance tasks. That’s the equivalent of 32 full business days.
On the other hand, small businesses were big beneficiaries of Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill and would be big losers if Democrats yank those benefits away. For example, the bill boosted investment by raising the Section 179 expensing cap to $2.5 million, and restoring 100% bonus depreciation for equipment. The bill also made permanent the 20% Qualified Business Income (QBI) deduction, preventing tax hikes for pass-through entities. If Democrats repeal any of those reforms as part of their "tax the rich" campaign, the consequences for small businesses’ bottom line could be devastating.
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Any observer would say that this is a ready-made GOP constituency, yet its political leanings have been largely ignored. A recent Stanford study shows that people who owned businesses were more likely to vote Republican by nearly 18 percentage points, compared to people who did not run their own businesses. Most importantly, their experiences operating small businesses directly affect their broader political views.
Hit them with high taxes, and they’ll gravitate toward the Republican column when it’s time to vote. Promise them relief from overtaxation, overregulation and shoplifters (whom leftist Democrats praise as "microlooters"), and they’ll listen.
That built-in Republican bias doesn’t just include restaurant owners in New York City worried about what Mayor Mamdani has planned for them, or beauty salon and gas station proprietors from Los Angeles to Memphis and Washington, D.C. The Stanford study found that doctors who own their own practices are between 2.5 and 5 percentage points more likely to register as Republicans, and are between 3.5 and 6 percentage points more likely to donate to Republican candidates.
The professor who ran the study was shocked at how little research there’s been on this influential group of voters. "This is a really important group in the economy that no one is looking at," he says.
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No one, that is, except the GOP, if they are smart. Here’s a 36-million-strong national constituency that employs nearly half of all workers in the country, and accounts for two-thirds of all job growth in the U.S. over the last 25 years. In addition, Hispanics make up one out of every four new businesses in America. By mobilizing small business owners, Republicans can also extend their inroads in getting Hispanics to vote in the GOP column.
The key steps forward between now and November should include:
History shows that great political parties aren’t built on ideologies or political programs. They are built on a coalition of shared interests. The "golden age" Trump talks about isn’t just for Silicon Valley billionaires and the Magnificent 7. It’s about the founders and entrepreneurs scattered across every corner of the country, who need a president who understands their needs and vision — and a political party that supports them both.