It’s Opening Day (finally), and, once again, hope springs eternal across the land. (Well, maybe not wherever Colorado Rockies fans may congregate, but everywhere else, HOPE!)
And in the Motor City, maybe hope is springing … a little bit springier? Finally, the dominant Tarik Skubal talk will turn to runs and strikeouts, rather than contract projections and trade packages. (At least until he exits Thursday’s game, that is.)
The Detroit Tigers are coming off back-to-back playoff appearances and appear to be all-in, if not for a World Series run, then at least claiming their first American League Central title since 2014.
How long ago was that? For starters, Justin Verlander was still a Tiger … crazy, right? Remember when he was wearing the Old English “D” on his chest? Oh, right!
Anyway, a dozen years ago, those Tigers were breaking in a prized prospect on the left side of the infield … Oh, right! Yes, where once it was Nick Castellanos, now it will be Kevin McGonigle, who was all of 10 years old when the Tigers last clinched the Central.
Can they do so this year? Again, hopes are high, and the questions are plentiful, and so we had a few of the Freep’s pundits take a swing at some of the biggest queries that will shape this 2026 Tigers campaign.
How many games will the Tigers win?
Evan Petzold: 89, thanks to an improved pitching staff despite not boosting the offense in free agency or trades. Back in 2025, the Tigers went 59-34 over their first 93 games, then 28-41 in their final 69 games – for a total of 87 wins. As for 2026, the offseason additions – Framber Valdez, Justin Verlander and Kenley Jansen, plus re-signing Kyle Finnegan, retaining Gleyber Torres with the qualifying offer and keeping Jack Flaherty on his player option – will raise the floor for the Tigers.
Carlos Monarrez: 87. I’d like to put them closer to 90, but it doesn’t really matter. Hey, they only won 88 games in 2012, which was the last time they went to the World Series, so stop complaining.
Jeff Seidel: 91. Over the past two years, they won 86 (2024) and 87 (2025). This year, the Tigers have a better rotation, a stronger bullpen and another year of experience for this offense. So, I expect another step forward.
Shawn Windsor: 91. Yes, they finally break the 90-win barrier, after a slow and steady climb the last four years. Team prez Scott Harris added pitching – in the rotation and the bullpen – and is banking on improvement from the relative youngsters in the lineup.
Ryan Ford: 92. The Tigers have increased their win total each of the past three seasons, so why buck the trend now? Last-season’s first-half 104-win pace is probably a bit much – though early April series against the Cardinals, Twins and Marlins might make it seem like a repeat – but trotting out Tarik Skubal, Framber Valdez and Jack Flaherty 60% of the time should paper over any offensive droughts.
Will they win the AL Central?
Petzold: Yes, albeit with the Kansas City Royals close behind. The Royals are the lone threat to the Tigers, but only if other position players – such as Maikel Garcia, Vinnie Pasquantino, Jac Caglianone and Salvador Perez – step up to help superstar Bobby Witt Jr. drive the offense. But the Royals are dangerous for other reasons: Cole Ragans is a sneaky pick to win the AL Cy Young Award, Carter Jensen is a top candidate to win the AL Rookie of the Year Award – and if someone is going to dethrone New York Yankees slugger Aaron Judge from his AL MVP throne, there's no better contender than Witt. The Royals have a fringe top-10 starting rotation, and a middle-of-the-pack bullpen, so if the offense clicks, the Tigers could be in trouble.
Monarrez: They should, but they probably won’t. The past two years, and especially last year, the Tigers have teased us with high expectations of winning their first division title since 2014. This year, it’ll be the Royals who somehow edge them.
Seidel: Yes. This team has depth and experience. And if they have injuries, they have several young players in Toledo who could come up and help this team win. The one thing that could derail them? Several injuries to starting pitchers.
Windsor: Yes. Finally. Though, as they showed a year ago it doesn't always matter. One measly hit in Seattle and the Tigers would've been playing in the ALCS. Progress isn't linear, obviously, but this is the best roster Harris has put together in his time in Detroit.
Ford: Yes. The Guardians can’t GuardsBall forever, right? The Royals will be the top contender, but the top of their rotation, Cole Ragans aside, can’t touch the Tigers’. The Twins are seemingly set up to get Kody Clemens more than 400 at-bats, and the White Sox will, at times, feature an actual big-league lineup – uniforms and everything.
Will Tarik Skubal win his third AL Cy Young?
Petzold: No. The left-hander shouldn't have a problem securing a spot as one of the three finalists, but it's hard to win three in a row. (It's never been done by an AL pitcher and has only happened twice in MLB history since the award's origin in 1957, both to NL pitchers.) Right now, the top four candidates are left-handers: Skubal, Garrett Crochet (Boston Red Sox), Max Fried (New York Yankees) and Ragans (Royals), with FanGraphs projecting Skubal to lead the way with a 2.54 ERA across 199 innings in 32 starts. In 2026, one of the other lefties will end his reign.
Monarrez: Yes, but it will be a tight race with Boston left-hander Garrett Crochet, who led the majors last year in strikeouts and posted a 6.3 WAR, just a tick off Skubal’s 6.5 mark. Skubal is the WHIP king, so you can count on him to have one major stat wrapped up.
Seidel: Yes. I’d never bet against Skubal. He is in such a strange point in his career. He’s not just pitching for this season. He’s pitching for a massive, gargantuan contract. The kind that can impact not just his family but generations. I firmly believe Skubal wants to win desperately. At everything he does. So, he wants this team to win. Yes, he wants to win the Cy Young. And yes, there is a massive payday out there. That’s a ton of motivation.
Windsor: No. But he'll be close. History isn't filled with pitchers who've won three in a row. Not even Roger Clemens or Pedro Martinez did, and both won two in a row.
Ford: Yes. He isn’t showing any signs of slowing down. While it’s always good to view spring training stats skeptically – see you later, 3.95 ERA – he still struck out 17 over 13⅔ innings, while walking one batter. ONE. That’s a walks-per-nine-innings rate of .073 – HALF his MLB-leading 1.52 BB9 last season.
How will Kevin McGonigle perform?
Petzold: McGonigle was the best hitting prospect in the minor leagues. Now, he is the AL Rookie of the Year favorite, with FanGraphs projecting him to hit .255 with a 10% walk rate and a 13.8% strikeout rate across 126 games, posting a .764 OPS. He will walk slightly less and strike out slightly more than those predictions, but more notably, he will finish with a batting average around .250 and an OPS around .750. There will be ups and downs, but his swing decisions and contact quality will keep him in the big leagues – and in the lineup for more than 150 games, as long as he stays healthy. He won't win AL Rookie of the Year, but he will be one of the three finalists.
Monarrez: Statistically, he’ll be decent. Probably somewhere in the .260/.310/.380 neighborhood. But he’ll struggle early and then later in the season as he adjusts to the lengthy grind. He’s 21, so he won’t have any of his similar-aged peers around to lean on.
Seidel: There will be games where you think: This kid is going to win a batting crown someday (which he will). And there will be days, even stretches, when he struggles. Like every rookie in history. You will come away from this season thinking: His defense is way better than I thought. And he will show a few other traits – he’s a gamer, a winner and he competes. Now, it’s super hard to win the Rookie of the Year. But man, he’s got everything that makes it possible.
Windsor: Spectacularly, and unevenly, just as he did this spring. His defense looks like it will be consistent, and that should help as he goes through inevitable dips at the plate as he learns how to hit in the majors and then to adjust to pitchers adjusting to him.
Ford: He’s the consensus No. 2 prospect in the minors, but he’s still just 21 – that means a lot of line drives for extra bases while his potential 20-homer power develops. His batting eye – he’s never had an on-base percentage lower than .350 at any stop in the minors – is already big-league ready, though. Call it a .250/.340/.420 slash line with a dozen homers, and a runner-up finish in Rookie of the Year voting.
How many wins will Justin Verlander finish with?
Petzold: 12, keeping him on track to reach 300 wins by the end of his age-45 season in 2028. With 34 wins to go, a 12-win season would cut that number to 22 – putting him in position to get there with back-to-back 11-win seasons. That would make him the 25th pitcher in MLB history to reach 300 wins – and the first since Randy Johnson in 2009. The path is simple: Stay healthy, build off a strong spring and lean on run support. If he succeeds, the Tigers will want him back after this one-year contract expires – but so will the Houston Astros.
Monarrez: 12. The days of Verlander pitcher 250 inning, or even 200, are long gone. So consider it a bonus when he reaches the sixth inning. That means fifth innings will often be a struggle to get out of in order to qualify for the win. With rotation luck against weaker teams, he should get to double digits.
Seidel: 10. In the last four years, he hasn’t won more than seven in a single season. But I’m gonna say 10 because the Tigers have such a strong bullpen. Recording wins means everything to Verlander, a guy who has 266 of them. Verlander will feel rejuvenated in Comerica Park, in front of all those loving, cheering fans. And he’ll do his darndest to stay in games, chasing wins. For the team, first of all. But also for his plaque at the Hall of Fame.
Windsor: 8, though if he stays healthy for most of the season, he could top that. In 2023, he won 13 games between his time with the Mets and the Astros, so maybe he can push that number if the bats align with his starts and he gets enough starts. He looked semi-vintage when he was healthy last year in San Francisco.
Ford: 8. Is that a well-reasoned projection, based on his expected declining innings, fewer starts in the 5-hole in the rotation and a slightly better bullpen in Detroit than he had in San Francisco? Or is it just the sum of the digits in his jersey number (35)? Why not both?
Who is the most important Tiger (other than Skubal)?
Petzold: Colt Keith, who will get a chance to become the everyday third baseman. He doesn't turn 25 until mid-August, so he's not even in his prime yet. If he takes a step forward offensively, especially in the power department, expect to see him in the All-Star Game. In 2025, Keith hit .190 with a .661 OPS in his first 32 games, followed by .273 with a .768 OPS in his final 105 games. Avoiding a third consecutive season with a slow start on offense will be key for Keith to experience a breakthrough.
Monarrez: Riley Greene has had to deal with all the strikeout hate, but he’s the team’s best hitter by far. I’m almost tempted to say Spencer Torkelson, because he’s been on a down, up, down, up teeter-totter every year in the majors, and the Tigers can’t afford another down year from a key position player.
Seidel: I’ve really struggled with this. In essence you are asking: who could they least afford to lose? Part of me says Riley Greene or Gleyber Torres, both of who are projected to produce a 2.9 WAR, per FanGraphs. But if Torres goes down, the Tigers have several options to replace him. Same for Greene. Part of me says Dillon Dingler. But the Tigers have Jake Rogers sitting there. So, I’ll say Framber Valdez. He is vital to this team’s success. In some ways, this is a reflection of the Tigers positional depth versus starting pitching depth in the minors, although that could change with the potential return of Jackson Jobe.
Windsor: Riley Greene. Too easy? A copout? How about this: he has the talent to take another step, and if he does, maybe he's the one who gets the hit in extra innings with the season on the line. Greene was mostly marvelous last season, but he still strikes out too much and runs a little too hot and cold. If he can make more consistent contact, he'll go from star to superstar.
Ford: Framber Valdez. Hard to believe, considering he wasn’t even a Tiger two months ago. For all the redundancies Detroit has in its lineup – almost anyone on the position-player side could get hurt and the Tigers have a viable replacement – they’re surprisingly short on starting pitching. It’s a big drop from Valdez to, say, Keider Montero or Drew Anderson, and expecting the bullpen to pick up the potential slack could lead to a long August and September.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Tigers 2026 Opening Day is here; 6 burning questions