At the season's midpoint, it seemed like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would be a shoo-in to win the NFC South. Todd Bowles' squad sported a 6-2 record entering its Week 9 bye, and Baker Mayfield was in the early-season MVP talk.

But after going 1-7 out of the bye, the Buccaneers will need to win and get help to make it into the 2025 NFL playoffs.

It initially appeared Tampa Bay's Week 18 matchup with the Carolina Panthers would be a win-and-in game for the Buccaneers. However, the Atlanta Falcons' upset win over the Los Angeles Rams on "Monday Night Football" in Week 17 has created a once-unimaginable scenario where they could be a three-way tie atop the NFC South.

Here's a full breakdown of the Buccaneers' playoff picture as they look to make the playoffs for a sixth consecutive season.

Buccaneers playoff chances

The Buccaneers have an estimated 28% chance to make the playoffs, according to NFL Next Gen Stats.

The Buccaneers were originally expected to have closer to a 50-50 chance to make the playoffs. However, the Atlanta Falcons' win over the Los Angeles Rams on "Monday Night Football" in Week 17 has complicated Tampa Bay's path to a postseason berth.

In short, Tampa Bay can't simply win and get into the postseason. The Buccaneers need to win and see the Falcons lose (or tie) in Week 18 to win the NFC South.

Buccaneers playoff scenarios

The Buccaneers can only get into the playoffs by winning the NFC South. Here's a look at what it will take for Tampa Bay to win the division for a fourth consecutive season:

  • Buccaneers win vs. Panthers AND
  • Falcons lose or tie against Saints

If these results occur, the Buccaneers would make it into the 2025 postseason as the NFC's No. 4 seed. They would then play either the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers or Los Angeles Rams in the wild-card round, pending the results of the two NFC West contests in Week 18.

If any of the listed results don't occur, the Buccaneers will find themselves outside of the NFC playoff picture.

NFC South standings

The Buccaneers are trailing the Panthers in the NFC South race by a game entering the final week of the 2025 regular season. Below is a full look at the divisional standings:

  1. Carolina Panthers (8-8)
  2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
  3. Atlanta Falcons (7-9)
  4. New Orleans Saints (6-10)

The Buccaneers need to win to match the Panthers in the NFC South standings. If Tampa Bay ends up in a two-way tie with Carolina, the Buccaneers would go to the postseason. The head-to-head tiebreaker would be nullified and the teams' divisional record would be even, but Tampa Bay would have the advantage in the "common games" tiebreaker.

However, if the Buccaneers and Falcons both win, that would create a three-way tie atop the NFC South. The Panthers would emerge victorious from that tiebreaker, as the team would have a 3-1 record in games played among the three clubs, the best among the group.

That's why the Buccaneers need help from the rival Saints to help potentially put them into the postseason.

Panthers remaining schedule

  • Week 18: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)

Buccaneers remaining schedule

  • Week 18: vs. Carolina Panthers (8-8)

Falcons remaining schedule

The Falcons don't play until Sunday, Jan. 4, so Buccaneers fans will know before that contest whether they have to worry about the result of Atlanta's final game. Below is a look at the matchup:

  • Week 18: vs. New Orleans Saints (6-10)

NFL playoff picture

Here's how the AFC and NFC stack up entering Week 18:

AFC

  1. Denver Broncos (13-3, AFC West winners)*
  2. New England Patriots (13-3, AFC East winners)*
  3. Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4, AFC South leaders)*
  4. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7, AFC North leaders)
  5. Houston Texans (11-5, wild card No. 1)*
  6. Los Angeles Chargers (11-5, wild card No. 2)*
  7. Buffalo Bills (11-5, wild card No. 3)*

In the hunt: Baltimore Ravens (8-8)

NFC

  1. Seattle Seahawks (13-3, NFC West leaders)*
  2. Chicago Bears (11-5, NFC North winners)*
  3. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5, NFC East winners)*
  4. Carolina Panthers (8-8, NFC South leaders)
  5. San Francisco 49ers (12-4, wild card No. 1)*
  6. Los Angeles Rams (11-5, wild card No. 2)*
  7. Green Bay Packers (9-6-1, wild card No. 3)*

In the hunt: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)

* Denotes team that has clinched a playoff berth.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Buccaneers playoff chances: Scenarios, NFC South odds for Tampa Bay