The New England Patriots have not won their division since 2019, but they are well-positioned to recapture the AFC East crown this season. After previously beating the Buffalo Bills 23-20 in Week 5, thus gaining a head-to-head advantage over the five-time defending champion, they have now started pulling away a bit further.
While the Patriots celebrated a 28-23 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday, the Bills were upset 30-13 by the Miami Dolphins. As a consequence, the Patriots now hold a one-and-a-half game advantage over their rivals and are facing significantly better odds: according to The Athletic’s playoff simulator, their chances of winning the AFC East now stand at 86% up from 60% last week.
While there is plenty of football left to be played for both teams — starting with a primetime game between the Patriots and New York Jets on Thursday — head coach Mike Vrabel and company hold the advantage over Buffalo halfway through the season.
AFC playoff picture after Week 10
- Indianapolis Colts (8-2)
- Denver Broncos (8-2)
- New England Patriots (8-2)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4)
- Los Angeles Chargers (7-3)
- Buffalo Bills (6-3)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4)
On the bubble: 8. Kansas City Chiefs (5-4), 9. Houston Texans (4-5), 10. Baltimore Ravens (4-5)
Not technically eliminated but let’s be real here: 11. Cincinnati Bengals (3-6), 12. Miami Dolphins (3-7), 13. New York Jets (2-7), 14. Las Vegas Raiders (2-7), 15. Cleveland Browns (2-7), 16. Tennessee Titans (1-8)
The Patriots’ AFC East odds are not the only ones that improved this week. They now also have a chance of more than 99% to make the playoffs, tied with the Philadelphia Eagles for best in the league. Meanwhile, no other team in either conference has a higher chance at a first-round by than New England’s 43%.
That is despite the Patriots slipping from second to third in the AFC since last week. The reason for that is their conference record: at 4-2, they lose that particular tiebreaker to the 6-1 Colts and 5-2 Broncos.
The NFC playoff picture, meanwhile, looks as follows:
NFC playoff picture after Week 10
- Philadelphia Eagles (7-2)
- Seattle Seahawks (7-2)
- Detroit Lions (6-3)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)
- Los Angeles Rams (7-2)
- Chicago Bears (6-3)
- Green Bay Packers (5-3-1)
On the bubble: 8. San Francisco 49ers (6-4), 9. Carolina Panthers (5-5), 10. Minnesota Vikings (4-5), 11. Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1), 12. Arizona Cardinals (3-6), 13. Atlanta Falcons (3-6)
Not technically eliminated but let’s be real here: 14. Washington Commanders (3-7), 15. New Orleans Saints (2-8), 16. New York Giants (2-8)
The Buccaneers’ loss to the Patriots caused them to drop two spots in the NFC standings. After previously being ranked No. 2 behind the Eagles, they have now been leap-frogged by both the Seahawks and Lions — the latter overtaking the Packers, losers of two straight, atop the NFC North.
There also was a change at the bottom of the standings, with the Saints overtaking the Giants (the latter of whom having since fired their head coach). However, that might not end up having an impact on the race for top NFL Draft positioning: whereas head-to-head performance matters when it comes to playoff standings, the top tiebreaker for draft positioning is strength of schedule. In that department, the Saints still rank lower than the Giants.