Second seed Carlos Alcaraz will seek to reach his second career US Open final when the 2022 champion takes on the No.7 seed Novak Djokovic in the first men’s semi-final.
Djokovic is chasing a history-making 25th Grand Slam title and fifth at Flushing Meadows. The Serb will see a showdown against Alcaraz as his best hope of reaching the final, having lost his previous five matches against the world No.1 Jannik Sinner.
Quick Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz betting tips
- Carlos Alcaraz to win in four sets – 9/4 at SBK
- Under 36.5 games – 10/11 Betfred
- Carlos Alcaraz -5.5 to win on the handicap – 17/20 at BetMGM
Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz odds
Despite having lost his last two matches against the Serb and four of his last five in the head-to-head, Carlos Alcaraz is the red-hot favourite to win when the two meet in their semi-final. Alcaraz is bidding to reach his first final since his win in 2022, and Djokovic is bidding to reach his first since he won his fourth title in 2023.
The latest Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz odds from the best betting sites are below:
- Novak Djokovic – 3/1
- Carlos Alcaraz – 2/9
Odds provided by SBK are subject to change.
Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz: Head-to-Head and recent form
When Novak Djokovic defeated world No. 4 Taylor Fritz in their quarter-final, at 38 years and 94 days, he became the oldest men’s player in the Open era to reach all four Grand Slam semi-finals in a season.
Whether he goes on to win this title again is another matter. But one thing that can’t be taken away from the Serb is that he is a remarkable athlete that is setting benchmarks that may never be beaten.
Djokovic’s longevity is second to none, and he’s shown it in abundance at this year’s US Open. The Serb has already seen off Learner Tien, Zachary Svajda, Cameron Norrie, Jan-Lennard Struff, and Taylor Fritz, dropping just three sets along the way.
He now has another crack at the Spanish wonder kid Carlos Alcaraz, whom the Serb would appear to prefer playing. Djokovic holds a 5-3 record over Alcaraz in the head-to-head, although at Grand Slam level, the record 2-2.
Their most recent meeting was in the Australian Open, also on hard court, with Djokovic coming back from a set down to win in four (4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4).
Carlos Alcaraz was probably a bit below par when he lost to Djokovic in Melbourne at the start of the year. However, that is an accusation that certainly can’t be thrown at the Spaniard now.
Since losing to David Goffin in Miami in March, Alcaraz has reached seven consecutive finals, winning five of them. The only two matches he lost were against Holger Rune in the Barcelona Open final and Jannik Sinner in the final at Wimbledon.
Furthermore, Alcaraz hasn’t dropped a set at the US Open so far. His wins have come against Reilly Opelka, Mattia Bellucci, Luciano Darderi, Arthur Rinderknech, and Jiri Lehecka.
Rinderknech is the only opponent to have even taken the Spaniard to a tie break in his five matches so far.
Such is the run that Alcaraz is on; if he manages to better the performance of Jannik Sinner at Flushing Meadows, he will return to the top of the men’s tennis world rankings.
Given the 22-year-old’s current form, it would take a brave punter to back against that happening.
Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz betting predictions and tips
As well as leading Alcaraz 5-3 overall in the head-to-head, Djokovic also has the advantage on hard courts, having won all three matches played between the duo. However, only one of the three wins was at a Grand Slam. Our Djokovic vs Alcaraz betting tips follow:
Carlos Alcaraz to win in four sets
We expect to see Novak Djokovic go for broke. Carlos Alcaraz is 16 years his junior and has a 14-1 record in five-set matches, winning his last 11 in a row.
Djokovic can’t outlast Alcaraz, so the Serb has to start fast and aim to finish the match early.
However, we simply can’t see Novak winning. He may get a set of the Spaniard, so if you think backing Alcaraz to win the match at 2/9 is too short, then back him to win 3-1 in sets for the better odds.
Back Carlos Alcaraz to win 3-1 at 9/4 with SBK
Under 36.5 games
A short game is good betting value with Betfred at odds of just under even money.
If either wins in straight sets, this bet should win – although we only see Alcaraz managing to achieve this.
The bet also has a chance of winning in a four-set match as long as two of the sets are one-sided. An example winning result would be 4-6, 6-2, 6-2, 6-4 to either player.
Under 36.5 games in the match at 10/11 with Betfred
Carlos Alcaraz -5.5 to win on the handicap
Given the form that Carlos Alcaraz is in, it would be no surprise to see him blow Djokovic away once he gets in front. Even if the match goes to the four sets that we are predicting, this bet could still comfortably win if Alcaraz puts his foot down once he gets in front.
An example of how this bet could win in four sets would be a scoreline of 6-3, 6-7, 6-4, 7-5 for Alcaraz. If the match finished like this, the Spaniard would have won 25 games to Djokovic’s 19, giving him a +6 game advantage.
If Alcaraz runs away with the match, winning 6-4, 6-4, 6-4, this wager would also win. It is a good value wager as it covers plenty of different outcomes.
Back Carlos Alcaraz to win on the game’s handicap from -5.5 at 17/20 with BetMGM
How to watch Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcaraz match live
Live TV coverage of the 2025 US Open is available across the Sky Sports platform. Here at talkSPORT, we will also have tennis betting tips and bring you all the latest news as the competition enters its final stages.
- Location: Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, New York, USA.
- Date and time: Friday 5th September, 8.05pm.
- How to watch: Live on Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Tennis and Sky Sports UHDR.
About the author
Dean Etheridge
Dean Etheridge is an experienced freelance sports betting writer who specialises in football, cricket, and darts, with a keen focus on the Premier League and Champions League, as well as in-depth coverage of Premier League Darts and major tournaments. He can turn his hand to all aspects of the beautiful game and beyond, delivering expert analysis across a range of sports. He predominantly covers the Premier League and Champions League but can turn his hand to all aspects of the beautiful game. You can follow Dean on LinkedIn (@deanetheridge)
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